WASHINGTON — Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement last month that conditions a phased Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanon on the verified disarmament and dismantlement of Hezbollah and all other non-state armed groups — a security bargain that Hezbollah has rejected outright.
The 14-point Trilateral Framework Between the United States, Israel, and Lebanon, signed June 26, requires the Lebanese Armed Forces to assume full security responsibility in designated pilot zones south of the Litani River, clearing Hezbollah weapons and infrastructure before the Israel Defense Forces begin phased redeployments. Hezbollah vowed continued “resistance” and warned that enforcing the deal could push Lebanon toward civil war. The Amal Movement, led by Nabih Berri and Hezbollah’s principal Shiite political ally, denounced the agreement as unbalanced and promised to obstruct it “in its current form.”
The framework’s Security Annex establishes a four-step sequence for the first pilot zone south of the Litani: clearing non-state armed groups’ weapons and infrastructure, verification by a mutually agreed third party, maintenance by a “highly qualified” LAF assuming sole operational control, and Lebanese-led reconstruction with international assistance. Israel and Lebanon will establish a 24/7 military coordination mechanism for deconfliction and verification through indirect military channels.
The agreement attempts to correct the failures of UN Resolution 1701 and the November 2024 truce by conditioning IDF withdrawal on actual Lebanese performance rather than promises. Lebanon issued a proscription of Hezbollah’s military activities on March 2, giving the LAF political cover, but the Lebanese military has said it lacks the capacity to disarm Hezbollah. More precisely, according to the Long War Journal’s analysis, the LAF lacks the social legitimacy and therefore the will to confront the group, having repeatedly rejected such confrontation on grounds of domestic stability.
Skepticism over the LAF’s reliability is grounded in recent events. After claiming “effective control” south of the Litani River on Jan. 8, Hezbollah continued fighting in the area after March 2. The IDF later reported significant Hezbollah installations still in place, including a 200-meter underground site in Majdal Zoun, and has alleged that the Lebanese military cut deals with Hezbollah to document vacated sites as proof of performance.
The framework’s first point requires Lebanon to recognize Israel’s existence and sovereign legitimacy — a significant step — while using phased language designed to avoid triggering Lebanese opposition to “normalization.” Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have wavered between relying on Iranian leverage, as Hezbollah and Amal prefer, and insisting that Lebanon charts its own course. Israel’s government backed the deal as a conditional path to peace, while opposition figures and northern Israeli residents warned that the framework left the danger of Hezbollah unresolved.
Under the agreement’s terms, the parties will periodically review implementation with U.S. facilitation and may mutually amend the Security Annex. The first test will be whether the LAF can credibly clear and hold the initial south Litani pilot zone — or whether the IDF must do the clearing before handing over territory to a Lebanese force that has shown no willingness to clash with Hezbollah.